What 94.34% Means
Of the 548 setup windows that had fully elapsed by the audit date, 517 traded above their recorded LONG signal reference price at least once before their evaluation window expired.
GFWS Verified History
Track Record
Directional Reaction Methodology
GFWS is an opportunity scanner, not an automated execution system. This record measures whether the market traded in the predicted direction after a signal was issued, within a timeframe-specific evaluation window.
The result does not represent an executed portfolio, trading profit, stop-loss performance, or guaranteed future outcome.
- Data period
- 1 October 2026 – 31 October 2026
- Last updated
- 4 November 2026
Main Result
94.34%
Directional Reaction Rate — Closed Windows
Closed windows only
517 of 548 fully evaluated GFWS setup windows traded above their signal reference price at least once within the timeframe-specific evaluation window.
This is a historical directional reaction rate, not executed trading, an account or portfolio return, realised profit, or a trade win rate. Past results do not indicate future results. Read the Risk Disclaimer.
Recorded Alerts
1,432
Unique Setups
578
Correct Reactions So Far
545 / 578
94.29%
Open Evaluation Windows
30
By Timeframe
Results by Timeframe
Each setup is evaluated using a window appropriate to the timeframe on which the signal was detected.
15M1 day
- Setups
- 305
- Correct Reactions
- 290 / 305
- Correct Reaction Rate
- 95.08%
- Closed Windows
- 305
- Successful Closed
- 290 / 305
- Closed Window Rate
- 95.08%
1H3 days
- Setups
- 195
- Correct Reactions
- 183 / 195
- Correct Reaction Rate
- 93.85%
- Closed Windows
- 195
- Successful Closed
- 183 / 195
- Closed Window Rate
- 93.85%
4H10 days
- Setups
- 66
- Correct Reactions
- 61 / 66
- Correct Reaction Rate
- 92.42%
- Closed Windows
- 48
- Successful Closed
- 44 / 48
- Closed Window Rate
- 91.67%
1D90 days
- Setups
- 12
- Correct Reactions
- 11 / 12
- Correct Reaction Rate
- 91.67%
- Closed Windows
- 0
- Successful Closed
- Not yet available
- Closed Window Rate
- Pending
No 90-day evaluation windows have closed yet.
By Market
Results by Market
Setups in the latest audit grouped by market, using the same timeframe-specific evaluation windows.
| Market | Setups | Correct Reactions So Far | Closed Window Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 255 | 242 / 255 | 95.47% (232 / 243) |
| Futures | 124 | 119 / 124 | 95.76% (113 / 118) |
| Stocks | 88 | 79 / 88 | 89.29% (75 / 84) |
| ETF | 42 | 40 / 42 | 95.00% (38 / 40) |
| Commodities | 41 | 40 / 41 | 97.37% (37 / 38) |
| Forex | 20 | 18 / 20 | 88.89% (16 / 18) |
| Indices | 8 | 7 / 8 | 85.71% (6 / 7) |
Methodology
How the Directional Reaction Methodology Works
A GFWS signal identifies a potentially significant market situation. It does not prescribe a fixed entry, exit, stop-loss, position size, or holding period.
For a LONG signal, a directional reaction is recorded when the market trades above the signal's recorded reference price at least once after the signal was issued and before its timeframe-specific evaluation window expires.
15M
1 day
1H
3 days
4H
10 days
1D
90 days
01
Exact signal timestamp
Only market movement after the recorded signal timestamp is evaluated.
02
One continuing setup
Repeated alerts from the same continuing market situation are merged into one unique setup.
03
First recorded reference price
The first eligible signal in the continuing setup establishes the reference price.
04
Closed versus open windows
A setup is included in the Closed Window Rate only after its complete evaluation window has elapsed.
05
Directional reaction, not executed profit
The metric measures whether the market reacted in the predicted direction. It does not calculate portfolio profit, transaction costs, slippage, stop-loss execution, or position sizing.
06
PREDICTION and PREDICTION+
PREDICTION+ is a stricter confirmation layer. It must be recorded separately from the original PREDICTION reference price when sufficient data becomes available.
What 94.34% Does Not Mean
It is not a simulated portfolio return, executed trade win rate, profit guarantee, recommendation to buy, or proof that every trader could capture the measured market reaction.
Audit archive
Monthly Audits
One immutable public snapshot is published after each calendar month closes. Historical snapshots are never overwritten.
Monthly audit Download audit — JSON
October 2026 monthly audit
1 October 2026 → 31 October 2026
- Directional reaction
- 94.34%
- Evaluated windows
- 548
- Setups
- 578
- Still pending
- 30
95% confidence interval: 92.08% – 95.99%
Data cut: 4 November 2026
Full archive
Monthly audit Download audit — JSON
September 2026 monthly audit
1 September 2026 → 30 September 2026
- Directional reaction
- 96.13%
- Evaluated windows
- 336
- Setups
- 372
- Still pending
- 36
95% confidence interval: 93.49% – 97.73%
Data cut: 4 October 2026
Monthly audit Download audit — JSON
August 2026 monthly audit
1 August 2026 → 31 August 2026
- Directional reaction
- 92.89%
- Evaluated windows
- 197
- Setups
- 211
- Still pending
- 14
95% confidence interval: 88.43% – 95.72%
Data cut: 4 September 2026
Transition audit Download audit — JSON
July 2026 incremental audit
27 June 2026 → 31 July 2026
- Directional reaction
- 97.65%
- Evaluated windows
- 85
- Setups
- 98
- Still pending
- 12
95% confidence interval: 91.82% – 99.35%
Data cut: 31 July 2026
Benchmark audit Download audit — JSON
Original beta audit
2 May 2026 → 27 June 2026
- Directional reaction
- 92.76%
- Evaluated windows
- 290
- Setups
- 338
- Still pending
- 48
95% confidence interval: 89.18% – 95.22%
Data cut: 27 June 2026
Next: November 2026 monthly audit (1 November 2026 → 30 November 2026) — published after 4 December 2026.
Source: GFWS 21 audit index
Important Disclosure
GFWS provides market analytics and identifies potentially relevant market situations. The Track Record measures historical directional market reactions after recorded signals. It does not represent executed trades, an investment portfolio, personalized financial advice, guaranteed profitability, or future performance.
Past market reactions do not guarantee future outcomes. Users remain responsible for their own analysis, timing, execution, position sizing, and risk management.
Hypothetical and model-derived results notice (U.S.). To the extent any result shown here is hypothetical, simulated, back-tested or model-derived, it has inherent limitations. It does not represent actual trading, it may under- or overstate the impact of market factors such as liquidity, slippage and execution, and it may benefit from hindsight. No representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve results similar to those shown. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Trading involves a substantial risk of loss. GFWS is analytical decision-support software and does not provide personalised investment advice. See the Risk Disclaimer, Terms and Privacy Policy.